GS PAPER 1
Indian Economy
India’s goods trade deficit has reached a 42-month low of $14.05 billion in February 2025 due to a decline in imports of gold, silver, and crude oil, as per data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
- This marks a significant reduction compared to $22.9 billion in January 2025 and $19.5 billion in February 2024.
Key Highlights
- Trade Deficit Trends
- February 2025: $14.05 billion (42-month low).
- January 2025: $22.9 billion.
- February 2024: $19.5 billion.
- Average trade deficit (April 2024 – January 2025): Over $23 billion.
- Decline in Imports
- Gold and silver imports: $2.7 billion (lowest since June 2024 – $2.5 billion).
- Crude and petroleum imports: $11.89 billion (lowest since July 2023 – $11.81 billion).
- Total imports: $50.9 billion (22-month low).
- Year-on-year decline in imports: 16.3 percent.
- Exports Performance
- Exports in February 2025: $36.9 billion.
- Year-on-year decline in exports: 10.84 percent.
- Impact of the Leap Year
- The leap year effect (an additional day in February 2024) has influenced the year-on-year comparison, as highlighted by ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar.
- Current Account Surplus Projections
- The fourth quarter of FY2025 Current Account is expected to see a surplus of around $5 billion (0.5 percent of GDP) due to the lower trade deficit.
Reasons Behind the Decline in Trade Deficit
- Fall in Crude Oil Prices
- Lower global crude prices have reduced India’s crude oil import bill, easing pressure on the trade deficit.
- Lower Demand for Gold and Silver
- Decline in demand due to high domestic prices and government policies such as import duties.
- Sluggish Global Demand
- Global economic slowdown impacting export demand for Indian goods.
- Policy Measures
- The Indian government has promoted export diversification and import substitution, leading to controlled imports.
Implications for India’s Economy
- Positive Impact on Current Account Balance
- A lower trade deficit reduces pressure on India’s foreign exchange reserves and currency stability.
- Inflationary Impacts
- Lower crude imports could help contain inflation by reducing input costs in industries.
- Challenges in Export Growth
- A 10.84 percent dip in exports suggests a slowdown in global trade, affecting India’s industrial and manufacturing sectors.
- Monetary and Fiscal Policy Considerations
- The Reserve Bank of India may adjust monetary policies considering the trends in trade and capital flows.
Conclusion
- The decline in India’s trade deficit to a 42-month low is a positive development for the economy. However, the drop in exports signals global demand concerns. The government and policymakers need to focus on boosting exports through diversification, free trade agreements, and infrastructure improvements while maintaining sustainable import policies to ensure long-term economic stability.
UPSC Mains Practice Question
Ques:Examine the factors contributing to the recent decline in India’s trade deficit. How can India sustain this trend while ensuring export growth?(250 words)
GS PAPER 2
Indian Polity
The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a plea challenging the current process of appointing the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, which is solely under the control of the Union government.
- The petition argues that this system compromises the independence of the CAG, a constitutional authority responsible for financial oversight of the Union and State governments.
Key Issues Raised in the Petition
- Lack of a Transparent Selection Process
- The petition, filed by the Centre for Public Interest Litigation, seeks the formation of a non-partisan selection committee comprising the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Opposition, and the Chief Justice of India.
- This would ensure a fair and independent appointment process, reducing executive control.
- CAG’s Role andIndependence
- CAG is a watchdog of financial accountability and audits government expenditures, including Panchayati Raj institutions.
- The absolute control of the executive in its appointment process raises concerns over potential bias and reduced scrutiny of government finances.
- Legal and Constitutional Standpoint
- Article 148(1) of the Constitution provides for the appointment of the CAG by the President but does not specify the procedure.
- The CAG’s removal process is the same as that of a Supreme Court judge, ensuring security of tenure. However, lack of a proper appointment mechanism could affect its functional independence.
- Judicial Intervention and Separation of Powers
- The Supreme Court questioned whether interfering in the appointment process would amount to rewriting Article 148.
- Justice Surya Kant emphasized the need to trust institutions, suggesting that judicial intervention in appointments must be carefully considered.
Concerns Over Recent Deviations in CAG’s Work
- Decline in Audits of the Union Government
- The petition refers to a reduction in audit scrutiny of central government expenditures.
- “Pause” in Maharashtra Audits
- Allegations of political interference affecting the transparency of state financial audits.
- These concerns highlight the need for greater independence and accountability in the functioning of the CAG.
Implications for Indian Polity and Governance
- Strengthening Institutional Autonomy
- If the Supreme Court mandates a selection committee, it would reduce executive dominance and enhance the credibility of CAG reports.
- Judicial Overreach vs. Institutional Trust
- The case raises a constitutional dilemma—whether the judiciary should intervene in executive appointments or rely on institutional safeguards to ensure independence.
- Impact on Financial Oversight
- A more independent CAG could improve transparency in public spending and reduce corruption in government financial management.
- Precedent for Other Constitutional Appointments
- This case could influence the appointment process of other constitutional bodies like the Election Commission and the Central Vigilance Commission.
Conclusion
- The Supreme Court’s examination of the CAG appointment process is a crucial constitutional development. Ensuring independence in appointments can enhance public trust in institutions and improve financial accountability. The outcome of this case could set a precedent for reforms in the appointment processes of other constitutional authorities.
UPSC Mains Practice Question
Ques :The independence of constitutional bodies is essential for maintaining financial accountability in governance. Discuss the need for reforms in the appointment process of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India.(250 words)
GS PAPER 3
Enviroment and Ecology
Wheat is India’s second-most consumed staple crop after rice, primarily grown in the Indo-Gangetic plains. However, climate change, particularly rising temperatures and shifts in monsoon patterns, is disrupting its production cycle.
- The Indian Ocean’s accelerated warming has altered agricultural seasons, leading to delayed sowing and early heat stress, significantly affecting wheat yield and quality.
Key Issues
- Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production
- Delayed Sowing:Rising temperatures cause the kharif season to extend longer, pushing back the sowing ofrabi crops like wheat.
- Heat Waves During Harvest: The Indian Meteorological Department recorded February 2025 as the warmest in 124 years, with predictions of high temperatures in March, directly affecting wheat harvest.
- Shortened Grain-Filling Period: Extreme heat accelerates flowering and ripening, leading to lighter grains, lower starch content, and reduced yields.
- Reduced Milling Quality: Heat stress results in higher protein but lower starch, making wheat harder and less suitable for milling.
- Indian Ocean Warming and Monsoon Variability
- Accelerated Warming: The Indian Ocean is experiencing a rapid increase in temperature, affecting monsoon patterns.
- Frequent Marine Heat Waves: A study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology predicts a tenfold rise in marine heat wave days, leading to irregular rainfall.
- Delayed Monsoons: Changes in the monsoon cycle delay kharif harvesting, which further affects rabi crop sowing.
- Economic and Agricultural Consequences
- Lower Crop Yields:In 2024-2025, wheat procurement stood at 26.6 million tonnes, falling short of the 34.15 million tonne target.
- Reduced Farmer Incomes: Lower yields lead to financial distress among farmers, pushing them to overuse fertilizers and pesticides, which further degrades soil health.
- Export Restrictions: In May 2022, India banned wheat exports due to global shortages following the Russia-Ukraine war, showcasing the vulnerability of food security.
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
- Climate-Resilient Wheat Varieties
- Developing and promoting heat-resistant wheat varieties with shorter growth cycles.
- Ensuring better access to improved seeds for farmers.
- Policy Interventions
- Shifting Sowing Periods: Encouraging early sowing in areas prone to early heat waves.
- Financial Support and Crop Insurance: Offering compensation for crop losses and expanding insurance schemes.
- Resource Management: Improving the management of fertilizers, pest control, and irrigation to optimize yields.
- Technological and Scientific Solutions
- Weather Monitoring Systems: Strengthening early warning systems for heat waves.
- Farmer Education: Training farmers on climate-smart agriculture practices.
- Efficient Water Use: Encouraging drip irrigation and water conservation techniques to sustain production under rising temperatures.
Conclision
- Climate change is a major threat to India’s wheat production. With rising temperatures, shifting monsoons, and increasing heat waves, wheat yields and quality are deteriorating. Policymakers must adopt a multi-pronged strategy, combining scientific research, financial support, and technological solutions, to protect food security and sustain wheat production in the long run.
UPSC Mains Practice Question
Ques :Discuss the impact of climate change on India’s wheat production. What adaptation measures can be taken to ensure food security? (250 words)
GS PAPER 4
Indian Polity
Free and fair elections are essential to a functioning democracy. In India, electoral reforms are necessary to address concerns regarding the voting process, campaign expenditures, and the criminalization of politics.
- Recent controversies, including allegations of electoral roll manipulation and duplicate voter ID cards, highlight the need for stronger safeguards to maintain public confidence in elections.
Key Legal Provisions
- Article 324 of the Constitution grants the Election Commission (EC) authority over the preparation of electoral rolls and the conduct of elections. The Representation of the People Act, 1950, along with the Registration of Electors Rules, 1960, governs voter registration and electoral rolls. The introduction of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) in 2004 and the addition of Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) in 2019 were steps towards improving transparency in the voting process.
Major Issues in Electoral Processes
- Voting and Counting Concerns
- Demands to return to paper ballots were dismissed by the Supreme Court in April 2024.
- A petition for 100% VVPAT verification was also dismissed, but the court allowed verification of the burnt memory of 5% of EVMs in cases of suspected tampering.
- Allegations of manipulation of electoral rolls before the Maharashtra and Delhi Assembly elections, with claims of fake voters benefiting the ruling party.
- Identical Electoral Photo Identity Card (EPIC) numbers appearing in different states like West Bengal, Gujarat, Haryana, and Punjab, raising concerns about duplicate voters.
- Campaign Issues
- Political leaders frequently use inappropriate language, appeal to caste or communal sentiments, and make unverified allegations.
- Election expenditure limits are regularly exceeded, with no cap on party spending. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections saw an estimated ₹1,00,000 crore spent by various political parties.
- Criminalization of politics remains a pressing issue, with 46% of MPs in 2024 having criminal cases against them, including serious charges like murder and rape.
Required Reforms
- Voting and Counting Reforms
- The sample size for VVPAT verification should be determined scientifically, with full verification in case of discrepancies.
- ‘Totaliser’ machines should be introduced to aggregate votes from multiple EVMs, maintaining voter secrecy while improving transparency.
- Candidates who finish second or third in an election should actively request verification of 5% of EVMs, as permitted by the Supreme Court.
Electoral Roll and Voter ID Reforms
- Linking Aadhaar with EPIC cards should be considered after addressing privacy concerns.
- The EC must ensure unique EPIC numbers across states to prevent duplication and fraudulent voting.
Campaign and Political Financing Reforms
- The EC should be empowered to revoke ‘Star Campaigner’ status for serious violations of the Model Code of Conduct.
- The EC should enforce stricter penalties, including suspending party recognition under Paragraph 16A of the Symbols Order.
- Laws should be amended to include financial assistance from political parties within candidate expenditure limits.
- A ceiling should be imposed on party election expenditures.
Criminalization of Politics
- The Supreme Court’s directive for candidates and parties to declare criminal records in newspapers and electronic media three times before elections must be strictly enforced.
- Voters should have access to clear information about candidates’ criminal records to make informed choices.
Conclusion
- Electoral reforms are necessary to restore public confidence in India’s democratic process. Strengthening voting procedures, reducing campaign malpractices, and addressing the criminalization of politics will ensure free and fair elections. The EC and political parties must engage in meaningful discussions to implement these reforms effectively.
UPSC Mains Practice Question
Ques :Discuss the major issues affecting free and fair elections in India. Suggest reforms to improve the electoral process. (250 words)
GS PAPER 5
Indian Economy
- India’s wholesale price index (WPI) inflation accelerated to 2.38% in February 2025, driven by rising prices of manufactured products and non-food primary goods. The increase comes despite food price inflation slowing to a four-month low and continued deflation in the fuel and power sector.
Key Trends in WPI Inflation
- Manufactured Products Inflation
- Prices of manufactured products increased to a two-year high of 2.86% in February.
- Core manufactured WPI inflation (excluding food) rose to 1.3% year-on-year, up from 1% in January.
- Experts anticipate a gradual rise in core WPI inflation, influenced by increasing international metal prices.
- Primary Articles and Food Inflation
- Primary articles continued to experience disinflation for the sixth consecutive month, coming in at 2.81%.
- Food price inflation eased to 3.38%, marking a four-month low.
- The correction in food inflation is slowing, indicating a potential stabilization in prices.
- Non-Food Primary Inflation
- Inflation for non-food primary articles surged to 4.84% in February, compared to 2.85% in January.
- This rise is attributed to a lower base effect, which magnifies the percentage increase in prices.
- Fuel and Power Sector Deflation
- The sector witnessed a deflation of 0.71%, an improvement from the 2.78% decline in January.
- Prices in this sector have remained in negative territory for seven consecutive months, suggesting continued downward pressure on energy costs.
Implications for the Economy
- Manufacturing Sector: Rising costs of manufactured goods could contribute to higher retail inflation in the coming months.
- Metal Prices: The expected increase in international metal prices may lead to further cost pressures in core manufacturing.
- Policy Considerations: The government and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may need to monitor these inflationary trends while formulating policies related to price stability and economic growth.
Conclusion
- February’s WPI inflation rise to 2.38% highlights increasing cost pressures in the manufacturing sector, even as food price inflation moderates. While fuel and power remain in deflation, the rising trend in non-food primary inflation and core manufacturing prices could influence inflation expectations in the coming months..
UPSC Mains Practice Question
Ques:How does air pollution impact solar energy generation? Discuss India’s strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change on renewable energy production.(250 words)
GS PAPER 6
Editorial Analysis
Context :
- Migration has always been a defining element of human civilization. It shapes societies, economies, and cultural landscapes across the globe.
- The recent controversy surrounding the deportation of Indian migrants from the United States sheds light on a complex and painful reality.
- While India celebrates its global achievers, a large portion of its population continues to seek opportunities elsewhere, legally or otherwise.
- Now it becomes crucial to explore the paradox of Indian migration, the factors driving it, the challenges faced by migrants, and the need for a national introspection on creating a future where migration is a choice rather than a necessity.
The Indian Diaspora: Success and Struggles
- India has the highest number of emigrants in the world.
- Many Indians have thrived abroad, with leaders such as Sundar Pichai (CEO of Google) and Satya Nadella (CEO of Microsoft) showcasing India’s intellectual prowess.
- These individuals symbolise a success story that India proudly claims. However, the Indian migration story is not uniform.
- At the other end of the spectrum are thousands of undocumented migrants, many of whom embark on perilous journeys to the United States, often via illegal routes through Canada or Mexico.
- Unlike the tech entrepreneurs and skilled professionals, these migrants are not fleeing war or persecution but are seeking economic security and stability that they believe their home country cannot provide.
- Their plight raises a critical question: why do so many Indians, despite belonging to a fast-growing economy, feel the need to risk everything for an uncertain future abroad?
The Paradox of India’s Economic Growth and Migration
- A painful contradiction lies at the heart of India’s migration crisis. India boasts impressive economic growth, yet rising youth unemployment and economic disparity drive people away.
- While urban centres showcase world-class infrastructure, many citizens still struggle for dignified work.
- States like Gujarat and Punjab, considered economically prosperous, have high rates of illegal migration.
- The desperation of even well-off families, such as the Gujarati family that tragically froze to death at the Canada-U.S. border, suggests that the problem is not just economic but also one of aspiration and social mobility.
- This contradiction raises an uncomfortable question: if India is truly progressing, why do so many of its people feel compelled to leave?
Factors Driving the Migration
- Booming Economy, Shrinking Opportunities
- At first glance, India’s economy appears to be thriving.
- The country boasts a GDP growth rate that outpaces many developed nations, an increasing middle class, and a rapidly expanding digital economy.
- It is home to some of the world’s most valuable startups, a powerful IT sector, and an increasing presence in global manufacturing.
- Yet, beneath these statistics lies a harsh reality: economic growth has not translated into widespread, inclusive opportunities.
- Despite India’s strong economic indicators, job creation has not kept pace with the millions of young Indians entering the workforce each year.
- The Middle-Class Exodus: Why Even the Affluent Are Leaving
- Traditionally, migration was driven by economic necessity, with poorer individuals seeking low-skilled jobs abroad to support their families.
- However, in recent years, a surprising trend has emerged, upper-middle-class families and even wealthy individuals are choosing to migrate.
- States like Gujarat and Punjab, which are often cited as economic success stories, see thousands of people leaving every year.
- Many middle-class families leave not just for better wages but for improved healthcare, education, and social security.
- Many parents see foreign education as a gateway to better job prospects and a superior quality of life for their children.
- While India’s startup culture is thriving, the bureaucratic hurdles, inconsistent regulations, and corruption make it difficult for businesses to scale efficiently.
- Failure of Inclusive Growth
- India’s migration paradox is ultimately a failure of inclusive growth.
- While the country celebrates its economic progress, wealth and opportunities remain concentrated in specific industries and among certain sections of society.
- The rapid urbanisation of India has led to development in metropolitan cities, but rural and semi-urban areas continue to lag in terms of employment generation and infrastructure.
- Additionally, sectors like agriculture, which still employ a large portion of India’s workforce, face declining productivity and profitability.
- Many farmers’ children see no future in agriculture and look toward migration as a means of escaping economic hardship.
- The drug crisis in Punjab, for instance, is partly linked to youth disillusionment due to diminishing opportunities in farming.
The Illusion of the American Dream
- The United States, long seen as the land of opportunity, has increasingly become a difficult place for migrants, especially undocumented ones.
- Many Indians who reach the U.S. illegally find themselves trapped in low-paying jobs, constantly living in fear of deportation.
- The American Dream, once considered a golden ticket, often turns into an endless struggle for survival in a society that does not always welcome outsiders.
- The recent deportations highlight the harsh reality of illegal migration.
- While the U.S. has the legal right to deport undocumented individuals, the manner in which it is done, shackling and handcuffing migrants, raises questions about human dignity.
- Other countries, like Colombia and Mexico, have condemned such treatment of their citizens, recognising that deportation is an administrative process, not a criminal punishment.
- India, too, must take a firm stand against the mistreatment of its people, ensuring that its citizens are treated with dignity and respect.
The Way Forward: The Need for Change; Creating Opportunities at Home
- Job Creation and Economic Reforms
- India must focus on policies that create meaningful employment, particularly for the youth.
- While the economy grows, job opportunities have not kept pace with the rising population.
- Investments in industries such as manufacturing, technology, and services can help absorb the workforce.
- Improving Education and Skill Development
- Many Indian migrants take low-wage jobs abroad despite having higher education qualifications.
- There is a need to align India’s education system with industry demands and provide vocational training that equips young people with skills relevant to today’s job market.
- Strengthening Infrastructure and Entrepreneurship
- If India wants to retain its talent, it must make entrepreneurship and innovation easier. Many Indians who succeed abroad do so because they find better ecosystems for growth.
- Encouraging startups, reducing bureaucratic hurdles, and providing financial support can create an environment where young Indians can thrive at home.
Conclusion
- The true measure of India’s progress should not be its economic growth alone but its ability to retain its talent and provide opportunities for all its citizens.
- Migration should be an option, not a compulsion driven by desperation.
- India must transform from being a country that exports talent to one that attracts and nurtures it.
- A rising India must be a place where ambition is fulfilled without the need for an outbound ticket, where success stories are written not just in Silicon Valley but in Indian cities and villages alike.